Process Mining with ProM

I am participating this exciting on-line course developing our understanding and skill in process mining. Using platform ProM, I tried conforming the resulting process model with the artificial event logs of loan business process. It is so great that I can  throw my preliminary prediction about the potential we could get from mining processes to benefit the work of system evaluators. I know it’s probably too early to state, but I guess it does not do any harm just to share the glimpse of thought  :

Provided that stored event data are reliably captured (you do not want be hassled by GIGO nightmare anyway), image of cases can help assurance professionals to ascertain whether controls exist to address risks associated with certain processes. Business process with most traces after doing the mining can be compared against the result from stepping through the actual process as part of walkthrough procedure. System whose process flows increasingly confirm the top ranked traces by process mining side, could be an evidence that the reviewed system properly incorporates certain amount of controls over IS infrastructure and application. Vice versa, pattern from process mining can also certify whether the as-is business processes show compliance to the organization process flow standard. Hope that Indonesia assurance community raises the awareness of important insight the business process can play to feed pattern recognition capabilities of mining tools which in turn making them able to keep up with the breakneck speed of data growth.

Visualizing Traces or Different type of process sequences of a loan process (artificial)

Visualizing Traces or Different type of process sequences of a loan process (artificial)

Loan_BPMN-1

The resulting BPMN from the loan event logs

Loan_PROM-1

Checking out if the BPMN comforms with the traces exctracted from the logs

 

I recommend readers to also join this on-line course here, facilitated by Associate Professor Joos Buijs of  Eindhoven University of Technology.

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IT Gov OC 2b – Strategic IS Planning

Do not expect this long to continue this homework. This whole study thing has been constantly keeping my away from writing. Well, now here I am. So off we go. The current resources are the bottom half part of the original source site. What basically shown here are mostly master of information technology course materials under Muki’s time, joining with some of his other colleagues.
It’s quite a long list to repost, as the original source slotted some open course videos in which the sizes are quite huge for my blog concern. Some of the videos are not, therefore feasible to be seen here. I’m negotiating with university’s server management if I can get bigger space. But so far no answer from them. So again, please apologize if you can’t see all videos here. With a step wise maybe we’ll get a solution for that.
I understand if you probably can not wait too long post to get the resouces, while due to my own activity, it’s difficult to only dedicate my time to put all together. I wish for your understandinng, for I set myself to support Muki’s wish to spread all the knowledge to Indonesia.

  1. Wheelen chapter 1: Basic concepts of strategic management
  2. Wheelen chapter 3: Environmental Scanning and Industry Analysis
  3. From Riri Satria: Introduction to Corporate Strategy and Business Strategy.
  4. Still from Riri Satria:Introduction to Functional Strategy.
  5. Introduction to Strategic Management ,his personal lecture version
  6. Ward and Peppard’s works in strategic IT planning. They are one of the widely recognized scholars in strategic information system domain. Chapter 1: Role of IS/IT in Organizations.
  7. Still from Ward and Peppard’s book. Chapter 3: Developing an IS/IT Strategy: Establishing Effective Process.
  8. Ward and Peppard’s Chapter 4: IS/IT Strategic Analysis: Assessing and Understanding The Current Situation.
  9. Ward and Peppard’s Chapter 5: IS/IT Strategic Analysis: Determining the Future Potential.
  10. Ward and Peppard’s Chapter 6: Determining the Business Information Systems Strategy.
  11. Ward and Peppard’s Chapter 7: Managing Application Portofolio.
  12. Ward and Peppard’s Chapter 8: Strategic Management of IS/IT:Organizing and Resourcing.
  13. Ward and Peppard’s Chapter 9: Managing Information System Technology Investments.
  14. IT Policy and Investment Management (with additional coverage like costing).
  15. Strategic management and how to derive application portfolio from strategy.
  16. Information Architecture (short lecture).
  17. Outsourcing.
  18. Organizing IT strategically/high-level on IT services in companies.
  19. Applications selection priority based on CSF technique.
  20. Strategy Maps from Kaplan and Norton (Harvard Business Review, 2000).
  21. Deriving application portfolio (BSC-based).
  22. Merger scenario for a particular one company holding. What do they do with their IT. This was actually his proposal to the potential client, which is thought useful to share.
  23. Information Technology Infrastructure and Architecture Planning.
  24. IT Planning dengan TOGAF. This actually belongs Budi Yuwono and or M.Nasri from UI Faculty of Computer Science. Es gibt method mapping of UI IT Plan to TOGAF which obviously important.
  25. IT Change Management. Since IT planning involve changing organization properties like cultural and perception, we need to consider how to not only get the system ready to run, bun also to foster user involvement
  26. Strategic flexibility with an adaptive architecture is instrumental for both organization with a dynamic business environment which is constantly changing, forcing a constant modification of business strategy and information system strategy in consequence.

That’s it. Please kindly wait for the next coverage. We will uncover how IT strategy is implemented in terms of managing all expenditures dedicated for IT. Happy learning.

Back to outline.

Disclaimer: I hereby do not claim that part or the whole materials I post in this topics are under my ownership. But I make some modification to make it easier and enjoyable to reader. I will claim some topics if it belongs to me.

Commemorating Muki (Arrianto Mukti Wibowo)

It’s striking me to know the news that you already leave forever from a friend. We did very few communications and, in fact we really never meet in person. One thing for sure though, we share the same interest in information system governance domain. But this unbelievably way of interaction does not hinder me to get a nice impression of how spiritful you are. Since then I claim myself as part of those who keep an eye to your website. You even pave the road and the opportunity for community learning. You open all resources which are somewhat others might have kept in a securely locked top secret folder. This is what exactly I’m doing right now, broadcasting your knowledge to the whole universe. Trust me, I’m learning to follow your move.
Now the Almighty has decided to take you there. I don’t have any information of the cause of your leaving, but anyhow, I would say you are probably better there. God loves you more, and definitely, sending you there is much much best place to go. Please need not worry buddy, because you have stocked your own remembrance with a handful of fruitful, knowledge, which is long lasting and will not fad away or be corroded in any other way.
My thoughts and my heart sincerely are with you and your family. I cherish all the good things you have delivered to the world. Good bye Muki.

IT Gov OC 2a – Strategic IS Planning

We will cover a forward looking-intensive work in getting IS implementation successful, namely planning. As its name describes, however, senior managements frequently tend to play down planning and merely hand it over to their subordinates. This paradigm of seeing planning as a kind of short term task would not only undervalue the busines case of IT investments themselves, but to a greater degree, would eventually sprirrals down company’s resources due to the waste of not utilizing IT in alignment with business objective. Failing to meet such alignment, would bear a risk to companies to loose their competitiveness in long term.

Unfortunately, Muki’s resources are way too much for me to sort them out neatly in such a short fix. So, I will divide the strategic information system planning topics into two sub-topics. As explained by the original source, the first part – I use point 2a- encompasses much on the IT plan methodology.The second part (2b) is sourced from IT plan teaching materials. 2b will be posted soon. Before I forget, as I virtually use the original resources, there are some topics in which the materials are not available for download in the original version. This will be reflected in my post too.

  1. Introduction to IT Plan (UI) Wibowo-Yuwono (2006).
  2. Example of a IS Assessment Form (Indonesia).
  3. Steps to construct IS/IT Strategy based on business strategy. This has been tailord to UI IT Plan Methodology.
  4. Steps to construct Guiding Principles and IT value proposition. Inside is provided Wibowo’s IS/IT Plan Map (2011) speicific for the said methodology. It gives an advantage to determine IS/IT strategic focus.
  5. Steps to determine proper IS strategy among alternative options existing in an organization, particularly in a competitive environment using Strategic Option Generator.
  6. Steps to form IS/IT Portfolio to all layers on the methodology. Essentially it’s in the form of layered-matrix mapping. Adopted mainly in blueprinting stage.
  7. A Sytematic way to create IS/IT Architecture. While portfolio talks about ‘what”, architecture talks about “how” each component relates each other.
  8. Steps to create IT Infrastructre Architecture within Strategic IT Plan context.
  9. A template of Gap Analysis for UI’s IT Plan by Wibowo-Yuwono. Legend available for clearer navigation.
  10. Ways to prioritizing projects. See Managing IT Investment and also Val IT 2.0 in IT Governance section.
  11. A template of KAK draft/meta TOR, which will be used for procurement department to set up IT Plan-based KAK/TOR. Indonesia specific.
  12. Managing IT Plan implementation risk.
  13. Example of Executive Summary IT Plan from Department XYZ in slide pitchbook format. Not a real document, but the summary is for director/commissioner consumption. Please consider specificity in own’s department.

The second part will be released next as I get more time space.

Back to outline.

Disclaimer: I hereby do not claim that part or the whole materials I post in this topics are under my ownership. But I make some modification to make it easier and enjoyable to reader. I will claim some topics if it belongs to me.

IT Gov OC 1– IT Governance Introduction

Hi guys, this is the first part of the IT Gov. open course. As you step through the materials, you will notice that IT Governance focuses more on business and talks much about a business than IT per se. So, it’s all about business. Please read them all to give you proper basis about what IT Governance is. Oh yeah, I will state explicitly if there is a particular content that I add it by my self.

Part 1 is an Introductory discussion.

  1. About the Essence of IT Governance. The sources are partly from ITGI (IT Governance Institute) and the other part is sourced from Strategies for IT Governance by van Grembergen and de Haes, scholars in IT Governance University of Antwerpen Management School (UAMS).
  2. Corporate Governance. Briefly discusses the relationship between IT Governance and Corporate Governance
  3. IT Governance according Weill&Ross, from  Centre for Information Systems Research (CISR), MIT Sloan.
  4. Integrating  IT Governance into corporate strategy, extracted from Ryan Peterson writing.
  5. Discussion on Organizational Structure Theory.
  6. A brief about Organization Decision Making.
  7. Communication. Communication mechanism is talked in Board Briefing on IT Governance, ITGI.
  8. Managing IT Function, mostly from Gottschalk’s chapter in  van Grembergen Et. Al’s  Strategies for IT Governance book.
  9. ITIL in a nutshell.
  10. COBIT 4.1 in a nutshell.
  11. AS-8015 Good Governance for ICT, now ISO 38500.
  12. Val IT 2.0 Erklärung
  13. What is Risk IT. I add it myself. It is available in ISACA website.
  14. Muki’s paper on  Describing IT Value Using IT BSC and IT Strategy Maps, in  Praha, Czech Rep, 2007.
  15. Muki’s presentation in Seminar IT Gov UI February 2008 at Bidakara, hasil case study 18 organisasi besar by Lab IT Gov UI
  16. Muki’s paper about Pendorong, Pendukung dan Penghambat IT Governance at big companies in indonesia (working paper, do not quote).
  17. Muki’s paper on the State of IT Governance at 103 Indonesia’s state enterprises  2010 (working paper, do not quote). There is no paper available either. Not available in Muki’s homepage too.
  18. Muki’s paper on  IT Gov BUMN hasil survey di 103 BUMN, in  a seminar of  IT Gov collaborating with Faculty of Computer Science  UI. Supported by ISACA, Detiknas, and other private firms. The output has been updated on his dissertation. 16 March 2011, Bidakara, Jakarta.
  19. Muki’s dissertation  about  IT Governance in BUMN. Entitled IT Governance Maturity at Indonesian State Owned Enterprises: Contingent Factors & Impacts. I salute you for this!. Sneak peak:
    • number of drivers (pressures) relates with IT Governance maturity
    • number of enablers associates with IT Governance maturity
    • number of inhibitors has nothing to do with IT Governance maturity
    • IT Governance has a positive effect on how value of IT investment is being felt in the organization
    • IT Governance has an association with bottom line company performance
    • IT Governance has (unfortunately) no association (or weak) with IT Risks
  20. Survey of IT Governance Control Objective Maturity, based on COBIT ME4 – Provide IT Governance. In Indonesia, easy to use and comprehend.
  21. ITIL version 3. From an official source, only selected the most important ones due to the large repository of books. Indonesia slides are also available.

That is it. I am thinking to give it in Indonesia to make the readers more effectively grasp the idea transfer process. Tell me what you think. Happy reading and keep sharing alive.

Back to Outline

Disclaimer: I hereby do not claim that part or the whole materials I post in this topics are under my ownership. But I make some modification to make it easier and enjoyable to reader. I will claim some topics if it belongs to me.

IT Governance Open Course – Outline

The Wish of Arrianto Mukti Wibowo (Email: amwibowo@cs.ui.ac.id; amwibowo@yahoo.com)

Personal Appeal / Request

” I BEG YOU, PLEASE, in the name of knowledge and science, in the name of the All-Knowing GOD, please REFER, LINK from other pages/websites, COPY, GRAB, BACKUP, SUCK, MIRROR to MANY SERVERS or CD/DVD as much as possible. May The Most Mercifull GOD bless you all (ga peduli kalau Anda atheis atau nyembah batu atau nyembah tuyul, that’s your business). Tapi please bantu backup di server lain. Mohon bantuannya mensosialisasikan. The reason I am asking you this is that in my experience, in a couple of years, for some reasons, sometimes websites are shut down for some reason (like geocities now backed-up in reocities)…” (Arrianto Mukti Wibowo)

I am pleased to have a chance to know Muki (his nikcname) for we are able to get his teaching and consulting materials in relation to IT Governance study. Muki is academics member of University of Indonesia’s School of Computer Science. He places much interest in Strategic IT Planning, and he mainly works in IT Governance Lab. He even begs to copy, grab the whole site contents for further redistribution.

I grant your wish, Muki. He has already acknowledged the power of sharing and peering of web 2.0 as MIT open course did. So do I  (my justification to download and upload those materials:) ). Building the “sharing spirit” on the top of this course materials, please do not hesitate to share it further to your peers. The more share you do, the better, remember Metcalf Law of network effect.

FYI, the original materials is sourced from Wikimuki page which is administered by Muki. Some modifications in terms of the look and data organization is done by me for some consideration. First, this topic will be organized into several posting as I do not want you to get jammed for comprehending all the materials. Taking a baby step is much wiser rather than solely grab the whole stuff but leave them eventually unread. Second, as I am a bit (or perhaps a very) perfectionist, I want my posting babies looked cool and enjoyable to read. That’s why I need time to do this and that kindda stuff, especially for the flow of contents.  Last, I just have to manage my focus with my own study which also takes time. I’m sure you understand that, and thank you for that. One more thing, as the original website is constantly updating, you might need to keep udpated by watching my blog regularly too (not everyday obviously) or simply visit his website.

This first posting is simply a brief outline of the trip we’re about to take. The following points are the topics will be discussed (I don’t modify the order, only slice the whole materials into clusters):

The Outline

  1. IT Governance
  2. IS/IT Strategic Planning 2a and 2b (Muki’s favorite topic and me too!!)
  3. Managing IT Investment
  4. Research Methodology
  5. Information System (IS) Principles
  6. Risk Management and IS Security
  7. IS Audit
  8. Decision Support Systems
  9. Business Process Design & Reengineering
  10. IT Architecture

As soon as the whole contents populate, I will rearrange with some link between the outline and the specific topic group. Some contents are still empty, waiting for uploaded. Do not worry, I keep my eye all the time to the website. Once it get uploaded, I’ll put it into my website too. Two type of materials are posted, video and reading (in pdf, word, or ppt formats).

Disclaimer: I hereby do not claim that part or the whole materials I post in this topics are under my ownership. But I make some modification to make it easier and enjoyable to reader. I will claim some topics if it belongs to me.

That’s it for now. Sorry, no downloads today :D.

COBIT and COSO

Here is an extract of one of my academic papers. Originally written in Indonesia. This paper was originally explored with my colleagues Deni, Ina, and Darwin and subsequently refined by me. I guess it’s a good idea to be able to discuss control in accounting information system context. Let me know if you would like to invite me into a constructive discussion since I find the paper still needs refinement in many dimension.

Dr. Doom

A nice article I saw from bnet.com

Who Is Nouriel Roubini?
By Alice C. Chen
published on BNET.com 1/05/2009

Is economist Nouriel Roubini a prophet or a perpetual pessimist who happened to get it right? In 2004, the New York University professor started to see disturbing trends he thought would lead to a crippling U.S. recession and a global slowdown. While other economists echoed his view at times, Roubini was the most consistent and bearish, even when his predictions failed to happen. So, most mainstream economists dismissed him simply as a perma-bear.
Five years after his initial warnings, he’s one of the most sought-after advisers in the world, strategizing with entities like Congress and international finance ministries.
Key Stats
• Name: Nouriel Roubini
• Also known as: “Dr. Doom”
• Age: 50
• Profession: NYU economics professor, co-founder of the economic-analysis firm RGE Monitor.
• Why he matters: Since 2004, Roubini has been the most pessimistic — and most accurate — predictor of the economic crisis. People ignored him then. They don’t anymore.

His Predictions
While other economists thought the real estate bubble would burst, they didn’t realize the extent of the devastation because housing is only about 6 percent of America’s GDP. Roubini, however, was one of the few who saw the link between housing and consumer spending, which makes up more than 70 percent of the U.S. GDP and about 25 percent of the world’s purchases of goods and services. As real estate prices soared, consumers used home equity loans to finance more expenditures.“(T)he only way you can liquefy your wealth is by using your home as your ATM machine, and that is exactly what has happened in the last few years,” Roubini told an audience at the International Monetary Foundation in 2006.

nouriel-roubini

Roubini also saw the makings of a massive, global trade imbalance. The U.S. was borrowing from China to purchase Chinese goods. China was buying commodities from Latin America and the Middle East to produce those goods. If China experienced any internal disruptions and it stopped financing the U.S., the dollar would devalue, consumer spending would drop, and a global economic slowdown would result.

Bottom line: America was borrowing from other countries to fund consumption and housing rather than productive investments that create exportable goods and services. Roubini concluded the trend was unsustainable. “The bursting of the housing bubble is going to lead to broader systemic banking problems,” he told the IMF audience. “The rest of the world is not going to be able to decouple from the U.S. even if it is not going to experience an outright recession like the United States.”

His Method
While many economists rely mostly on rigorous econometric formulas, Roubini assumes that quantitative methods alone can’t explain unprecedented moves in the global economy. So, he adds a heavy dose of intuition, historical analogies, and circumstantial observation to his work. He derives most of his forecasts from simple data like supply-and-demand models and ratios of home price versus rent and home price versus income. Other economists use computers to crunch data, but Roubini uses his brain, says Christian Menegatti, lead analyst at Roubini’s firm RGE Monitor. His nontechnical framework has been likened to those used by noted economists Joseph Stiglitz and Paul Krugman. And Roubini told the New York Times that Alan Greenspan and John Maynard Keynes have influenced his methodology. His approach to economics isn’t radical, but his style can be considered flamboyant, says Brad Setser, who co-wrote a book with Roubini and is now a fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations Center for Geoeconomics. A recent Roubini blog post illustrates the point: “(T)hese Bush hypocrites who spewed for years the glory of unfettered wild west laissez faire jungle capitalism allowed the biggest debt bubble ever to fester without any control (and) have caused
the biggest financial crisis since the Great Depression.”

The Debate
Anirvan Banerji, director of research at the Economic Cycle Research Institute, praises Roubini for correctly capturing the nature of the crisis but points out that his timing was repeatedly off. What if the Fed had adjusted interest rates or businesses stopped hiring based on impending recessions that didn’t occur?
But, Darrell Duffee, a finance professor at Stanford’s Graduate School of Business, says timing is not so important. “His skeptical commentary has been very, very useful,” says Duffee, who added that Roubini’s warnings were meant to straighten out the financial sector. Indeed, in November 2004, Roubini warned on his blog, “(S)erious financial distress from unsustainable fiscal and current account deficits cannot be ruled out.”
Banerji also criticizes Roubini for changing his justifications for the recession as he kept missing the timing. First it was the trade deficit, then oil price shocks, then the housing downturn, and finally the credit crisis, Banerji says. “There’s something lacking in terms of understanding what triggered the recession,” he adds.
Supporters argue that Roubini emphasized different vulnerabilities but his overarching argument remained the same. “The U.S. wasn’t borrowing from the world to finance productive investment (and) that process would end badly,” says Setser.

His Solution
Roubini expects things to get worse before they get better and predicts the recession will last at least until the end of 2009. In general, he advocates for the government to stabilize the economy through monetary and fiscal policy. Here are his recommendations to stop the credit crisis:
• Temporarily freeze all foreclosures.
• Create massive fiscal stimulus packages of at least $400 billion for public works, infrastructure spending, unemployment benefits, and tax rebates to lower-income households. Provide grants to state and local governments in dire need of funding.
• Coordinate interest-rate cuts globally.
• Temporarily insure all bank deposits. Allow insolvent banks to shut down and partially nationalize solvent but distressed banks.
• Open credit lines to solvent financial institutions and companies.
• Inject money into banks by buying equity.
• Coordinate a global effort to gradually adjust trade imbalances.
Policy makers around the world have heeded most of Roubini’s suggestions. Hopefully the one who saw it all coming sees the correct solution as well.