The power of Community(2.0)

Did you ever feel that every pieces of your footstep in your life at a point in time may at least lead you to a wiser and bigger meaning of something? well I maybe one of those who thing that way. I see that mailing list and my reading during the last two weeks lead me to to start understanding how collaborative working can rule the new competition.
I’ve been reading this cool book for about two weeks from the first day I bought it at a bookstore in Bandung. Oh yeah, I forget. Anyway, the book is entitled Wikinomics. Pretty eye catching for an impulse book reader like me by just looking at the cover. Though I read its Indonesian translated version, the message is pretty clear and delivered nicely. It’s a pity that I’m in the middle of my peak time to finalize some stuff for the end of January.
Authored by Don Tapscott and Anthony D. Williams, the book is promising a new look of how information society revolutionizes. It’s not food company vs food company anymore. It’s not also rivalry between two competing value chains. It’s way bigger than that. What happened now is global competition. I’m not talking global in a “multinational” or “enterprise-wide” sense, but global in the sense that all people are powered by the new version of the little e- (e-business, e-commerce, e-money, e-banking) to enhance new innovation, new product and even bigger, a new paradigm. Collaboration, seems to be the most looked up buzzword to define how people are now enabled to create a new kind of working style, dumping self and license protected product and services.Whole range of collaborations now exist to demonstrate the capability of shared-working: blogs, wikis, peering, open source application, and to my knowledge, mailing list.

In Indonesia, the wave of collaboration is also moving on. I realize the going by looking how community media is having its evolution. From 20 mailing list I have been joining so far, at least now I’m part of some mailing lists that serve for certain domain of knowledge. One community/ mailing list, KOM-TEK, stands for KOMputer TEKnologi, is an Indonesian -based mailing list dedicating for improving the member skill. It is a place where few humble and IS experienced people are dedicating themselves for the development of Indonesia human resources, especially in ERP and other enterprise application. They hold ranges of free ERP trainings given that internet connection is available. As a result, now more people are coming that are competitive for ERP human resources market after they graduate from the training.

Another mailing list, IPOM-APICS are opening opportunity for those who are interested in industrial engineering and its related field. The mailing list is associated with APICS (a non profit organization that offers three internationally recognized professional certification programs:CPIM – Certified in Production and Inventory Management, CFPIM – Certified Fellow in Production and Inventory Management, and CSCP – Certified Supply Chain Professional designation. Since its formation, the mailing list has been able to provide its member access to knowledge in operation management.

Having read this, I guess it’s not impossible to create new innovation from this community controlled area. And that’s what I call the power of community.

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Dr. Doom

A nice article I saw from bnet.com

Who Is Nouriel Roubini?
By Alice C. Chen
published on BNET.com 1/05/2009

Is economist Nouriel Roubini a prophet or a perpetual pessimist who happened to get it right? In 2004, the New York University professor started to see disturbing trends he thought would lead to a crippling U.S. recession and a global slowdown. While other economists echoed his view at times, Roubini was the most consistent and bearish, even when his predictions failed to happen. So, most mainstream economists dismissed him simply as a perma-bear.
Five years after his initial warnings, he’s one of the most sought-after advisers in the world, strategizing with entities like Congress and international finance ministries.
Key Stats
• Name: Nouriel Roubini
• Also known as: “Dr. Doom”
• Age: 50
• Profession: NYU economics professor, co-founder of the economic-analysis firm RGE Monitor.
• Why he matters: Since 2004, Roubini has been the most pessimistic — and most accurate — predictor of the economic crisis. People ignored him then. They don’t anymore.

His Predictions
While other economists thought the real estate bubble would burst, they didn’t realize the extent of the devastation because housing is only about 6 percent of America’s GDP. Roubini, however, was one of the few who saw the link between housing and consumer spending, which makes up more than 70 percent of the U.S. GDP and about 25 percent of the world’s purchases of goods and services. As real estate prices soared, consumers used home equity loans to finance more expenditures.“(T)he only way you can liquefy your wealth is by using your home as your ATM machine, and that is exactly what has happened in the last few years,” Roubini told an audience at the International Monetary Foundation in 2006.

nouriel-roubini

Roubini also saw the makings of a massive, global trade imbalance. The U.S. was borrowing from China to purchase Chinese goods. China was buying commodities from Latin America and the Middle East to produce those goods. If China experienced any internal disruptions and it stopped financing the U.S., the dollar would devalue, consumer spending would drop, and a global economic slowdown would result.

Bottom line: America was borrowing from other countries to fund consumption and housing rather than productive investments that create exportable goods and services. Roubini concluded the trend was unsustainable. “The bursting of the housing bubble is going to lead to broader systemic banking problems,” he told the IMF audience. “The rest of the world is not going to be able to decouple from the U.S. even if it is not going to experience an outright recession like the United States.”

His Method
While many economists rely mostly on rigorous econometric formulas, Roubini assumes that quantitative methods alone can’t explain unprecedented moves in the global economy. So, he adds a heavy dose of intuition, historical analogies, and circumstantial observation to his work. He derives most of his forecasts from simple data like supply-and-demand models and ratios of home price versus rent and home price versus income. Other economists use computers to crunch data, but Roubini uses his brain, says Christian Menegatti, lead analyst at Roubini’s firm RGE Monitor. His nontechnical framework has been likened to those used by noted economists Joseph Stiglitz and Paul Krugman. And Roubini told the New York Times that Alan Greenspan and John Maynard Keynes have influenced his methodology. His approach to economics isn’t radical, but his style can be considered flamboyant, says Brad Setser, who co-wrote a book with Roubini and is now a fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations Center for Geoeconomics. A recent Roubini blog post illustrates the point: “(T)hese Bush hypocrites who spewed for years the glory of unfettered wild west laissez faire jungle capitalism allowed the biggest debt bubble ever to fester without any control (and) have caused
the biggest financial crisis since the Great Depression.”

The Debate
Anirvan Banerji, director of research at the Economic Cycle Research Institute, praises Roubini for correctly capturing the nature of the crisis but points out that his timing was repeatedly off. What if the Fed had adjusted interest rates or businesses stopped hiring based on impending recessions that didn’t occur?
But, Darrell Duffee, a finance professor at Stanford’s Graduate School of Business, says timing is not so important. “His skeptical commentary has been very, very useful,” says Duffee, who added that Roubini’s warnings were meant to straighten out the financial sector. Indeed, in November 2004, Roubini warned on his blog, “(S)erious financial distress from unsustainable fiscal and current account deficits cannot be ruled out.”
Banerji also criticizes Roubini for changing his justifications for the recession as he kept missing the timing. First it was the trade deficit, then oil price shocks, then the housing downturn, and finally the credit crisis, Banerji says. “There’s something lacking in terms of understanding what triggered the recession,” he adds.
Supporters argue that Roubini emphasized different vulnerabilities but his overarching argument remained the same. “The U.S. wasn’t borrowing from the world to finance productive investment (and) that process would end badly,” says Setser.

His Solution
Roubini expects things to get worse before they get better and predicts the recession will last at least until the end of 2009. In general, he advocates for the government to stabilize the economy through monetary and fiscal policy. Here are his recommendations to stop the credit crisis:
• Temporarily freeze all foreclosures.
• Create massive fiscal stimulus packages of at least $400 billion for public works, infrastructure spending, unemployment benefits, and tax rebates to lower-income households. Provide grants to state and local governments in dire need of funding.
• Coordinate interest-rate cuts globally.
• Temporarily insure all bank deposits. Allow insolvent banks to shut down and partially nationalize solvent but distressed banks.
• Open credit lines to solvent financial institutions and companies.
• Inject money into banks by buying equity.
• Coordinate a global effort to gradually adjust trade imbalances.
Policy makers around the world have heeded most of Roubini’s suggestions. Hopefully the one who saw it all coming sees the correct solution as well.

Palestine update

Victims list … over 700 people were sacrificed for something or nothing? While European people started to rally protesting the violence against Palestinian ( I would say, genocide indeed), Indonesia government that’s obviously the largest muslim country in the world (?) seems do very little move to support Palestine. Where the hell humanity gone?

Palestine..all my best wishes

Conflict over Israel attack on Palestine area becomes more intense. According to TV news couple hours ago, major war between Israel and Palestine has occurred for about three times. Since 1946, the UK backed newly emerged Israeli state, gradually took over Palestinian’s land through war, harsh and occupation. From the map, it can be seen that the Palestine land is shrinking time to time. Big question is, how’s on earth the so called peacemaker UN can foolishly award the land to the Jewish without considering the history and the fact that the land was not even Jewish de facto area?
The situation became more frustrating since Arabian league is never able to unite their view to support the Palestine. I wonder what happened with the heart and brain of those leaders? I certainly don’t have the right to judge them, but it’s just too obvious, that both Arabian League and international community lead by UN doesn’t have true willingness to fix the thing. Let’s hope the situation turns for Palestinian people good. I believe that Allah will help on those who fight for Him, be it now or then.

israel-palestine-map. From annies-letters.blogspot.com

Information Relevancy-past&present

I want to propose a hypothesis or anything similar like that. You may or may not agree with my opinion.But if you put yourself back in early 90s or perhaps much further than that, say 80s, many of us really find it’s hard to get needed information channel for your decision making purpose in the sense that the channel was not provided sufficient enough. Organization business process data still being captured in a proprietary IS infrastructure in a so called legacy. Different division means different data structure, application logic/algorithm and communication standard. The premature stage of communication protocol like TCP/IP had not provided a quick way to obtain information. Put it in simple word, biggest problem is the lack of information channel that caused inability to get proper information for next course of action.
On the other hand, the emergence of web 2.0, search engines, browsers development, and many embedded web based applications are seen a milestone of present information processing age. The now act now as the frontier to open a new order of information discovery. Yet, organization still suffer from getting right information in right time, right context and right way. Even worse, we are drawn and chocked in a drastically huge volume of data or information, coined as Information Overload. Try googling with the word “computer”, n you’ll see 1,020,000,000 search result out of it. But to identify which context nicely fit to your desire is another problem I suppose.
Reflecting to said above explanation, I think that management or organization still face difficulties in obtaining a relevant information for decision making, only to a different extent. In the past we deal with information shortage, n now we face information overload. Until business and IS align together, the problem of information relevance will remain unsolved.

Lesson learned from Megadeth 2008 tour

It was mid 2008 (CMIIW) when Megadeth made their return to Indonesia. To me, it was just a big surprise as I’ve been waiting for this opportunity. My buddy Jipo was the one who told the tour. Don’t think twice, I asked him to book me a ticket (front row for sure). I planned to go there with him since much our friends were not able to join the group.
This is a very expected event. I saw Metallica when I was junior high, and obviously I want to see Megadeth after that. The exciting moment of stage performance were playing as my head started thinking about them. It’s something that I ever wanna do when I was still young.
All of sudden, reality bites. I got sad news that my mother’s closest neighbor was passed away. And the person would be rested in Garut, a city 2.5 hours away south from Bandung. n you know what, the burial is in the same time with Megadeth tour. Who else gonna take my mom there beside me? And even if I forced my self to immediately go to Jakarta after taking my mom to Garut, I wouldn’t be able to see even the last part of the last performance. Clearly I can’t heal my self quickly from the disappointment, but you just gotta do it. My respect to my parents is way lot bigger than watching the tour.
Well, it’s not that I regret taking my mom, but the lesson learned from it at least two: (1) people can only plan and do their best while God who decides and (2) you just have to believe that all the good deeds you make today is actually putting a future good seed for yourself. But, anyhow, people might think differently from my standpoint.
Anyway, enjoy the weekend folks.

Wall Street’s 2008 Auditor Opinion

I quote and paraphrase my friend’s posting to my email…damn good

We have reviewed the management balance sheet for December 31st, 2008. Basically, from accounting equation rule, assets is positioned on the left side and capital is on the right side. Based on our finding and analysis of the company’s financial position, we conclude that on the right side, there is nothing right and on the left side there is nothing left.

Seattle still sounds and keep rocks on!

Just few nostalgia back in 90s from the legendary Seattle’s PJ

Elderly Woman Behind The Counter in a Small Town

I seem to recognize your face
Haunting, familiar, yet I cant seem to place it
Cannot find the candle of thought to light your name
Lifetimes are catching up with me
All these changes taking place,
I wish Id seen the place
But no ones ever taken me
Hearts and thoughts they fade, fade away… (2x)

I swear I recognize your breath
Memories like fingerprints are slowly raising
Me you wouldnt recall, for
Im not my former
Its hard when youre stuck upon the shelf
I changed by not changing at all, small town predicts my fate
Perhaps thats what no one wants to see
I just want to scream…hello…
My God its been so long, never dreamed youd return
But now here you are, and here I am
Hearts and thoughts they fade…away…

Hearts and thoughts they fade, fade away… (2x)
Hearts and thoughts they fade…away…
Hearts and thoughts they fade, fade away… (3x)
Hearts and thoughts they fade…

the mother of the Book

1:1 بِسْمِ اللّهِ الرَّحْمـَنِ الرَّحِيم
Bismillāhi r-raḥmāni r-raḥīm
In the name of God, the Most Gracious, the Most Merciful:

1:2 الْحَمْدُ للّهِ رَبِّ الْعَالَمِين
Al ḥamdu lillāhi rabbi l-‘ālamīn
All Praise is due to God, Lord of the Universe.

1:3 الرَّحْمـنِ الرَّحِيم
Ar raḥmāni r-raḥīm
The Most Gracious, the Most Merciful.

1:4 مَـالِكِ يَوْمِ الدِّين
Māliki yawmi d-dīn
Sovereign of the Day of Judgment.

1:5 إِيَّاك نَعْبُدُ وإِيَّاكَ نَسْتَعِين
Iyyāka na’budu wa iyyāka nasta’īn
You alone we worship, and You alone we ask for help

1:6 اهدِنَــــا الصِّرَاطَ المُستَقِيمَ
Ihdinā ṣ-ṣirāṭ al mustaqīm
Guide us to the straight path;

1:7 صِرَاطَ الَّذِينَ أَنعَمتَ عَلَيهِمْ غَيرِ المَغضُوبِ عَلَيهِمْ وَلاَ الضَّالِّين
Ṣirāṭ al-laḏīna an’amta ‘alayhim ġayril maġḍūbi ‘alayhim walāḍ ḍāllīn
The path of those on whom You have bestowed your grace, not of those who have earned Your anger, nor of those who go astray.

Quoted from Wikipedia

PSPA – highly recommended for parents/parents wannabe

Truly remarkable, inspiring and a must attend program for both parents and parents wannabe. Extremely recommended. I participated to this event right in the middle long holiday, a time when we, most working people, dream to get lazy and play around with kids – Saturday and Sunday. And so did we actually. Even though my working time is quite flexible (for teaching at university), but I always see Sat & Sun are days where they are supposed to be a day off for working (again, I have to admit, mostly it just doesn’t work that way, cause beside lecturing I do consulting work).
At first, I was not too keen to attend the stuff. I solely pushed my self just because I want to respect my wife’s effort who had booked the place for both of us. I thought that this is just another variant of parenting product like everyone else offered by motivational consultant or EO folks to attract parents who put concern on their children. The program was named PSPA (Program Sekolah Pengasuhan Anak), instructed by seemingly quite young motivater, Ihsan Baihaqi Ibnu Bukhari. The thing costed us about Rp.250.000 each (we got discounted price actually, haha).
But, really, all bless to the almighty God who had lead me to the course, the event was sooo deeply touching my very heart as a dad. All material are so highly motivating, easily understood and really practical based. Sometime we forgot that children are not ours. They are both Allah bless and His mandate for us to look after before returning back to Him in a original condition. But often what we did is actually against His willingness. As a parent, we have to admit that we have lead them to make their life much harder, as opposed to make them be prepared to be a person with integrity, value and preparedness to fight for Him.
Dear bunda, liyana, naila, and sarah the long waited new member in d family, please forgive me for all misdirection I ever gave. I’d try the best to be your better guy.